The seasonal forecast for September to December (SOND) 2019 rainfall season indicates higher chance of wetter conditions in most parts of the country depending on the topography. The seasonal forecast for SOND 2019 was issued in the National Climate Outlook Forum convened on 4th September 2019 which put together participants from government agencies and ministries and members of the media.
The forecast indicates that the big part of Northern Province, the Western Province especially in Rubavu, Nyabihu, Rusizi, Nyamasheke districts and part of Rutsiro district bordering Rubavu District, Southern Province (Nyaruguru, Huye, Gisagara and southern part of Nyamagabe) and Eastern Province (most part of Nyagatare, Gicumbi and few part of Gatsibo District will experience high rainfall ranging between 500 and 600 millimeters.
The remaining part of the country will have moderate rainfall ranging between 410 and 500 millimeters except Kayonza, Kirehe, Ngoma and Bugesera Districts in Eastern Province and the big part of Gisagara District of Southern Province which is expected to have the rainfall ranging between 350 and 410 millimeters.
Mr. Aimable Gahigi, the Director General of Meteo Rwanda said that more rainfall expected in Northern Province and big part of Western Province may cause floods and other related disasters such as landslides, destruction of houses and others.
He urged relevant authorities with activities that depend on rainfall and other vurnerable institutions like infrastructures to put in place both preventive and mitigation strategies to minimize loss of life and property.
“Nowadays, severe weather events are increasing and becoming intense. We everyday incur losses associated to hydro-meteorological related hazards. However, better application of weather and climate information can significantly reduce losses resulting from these extreme weather events,” said the Director General.
The National climate outlook was issued following the regional climate outlook consensus reached at the 53rd Greater Horn of Africa concluded in Dar Es Salaam Tanzania from 26th to 28th August 2019.
The downscaled regional objective forecast from 7 Global Producing Centres (GPCs) indicates higher chance of wetter conditions in most of the equatorial and southern sectors where Rwanda is located during October to December 2019.
The Key factors expected to influence the regional climate during the SOND 2019 season include positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) anomalies currently present in the Indian Ocean which are expected to remain positive and weak El Nino Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO) expected to remain neutral through the September to December 2019 period.
To read Meteo Rwanda’s statement in Kinyarwanda regarding September to December 2019 rainfall season click here.